🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."